When will the Bust come to Harrisburg, PA?

Despite the farewell warnings of one of my heroes, Alan Greenspan, I don't believe a BUST is coming to Central Pennsylvania's residential real estate market anytime soon. Here is why....

1. Demand still exceeds supply.
2. Interest rates are still low. (They actually fell by week's end).
3. Unemployment rates are at record lows in Central PA and four year lows nationally.
4. Central PA is "recession proof" due to the size and scope of government.
5. Housing prices in the Harrisburg area are still extremely affordable.
6. Quality of Life factors are still great in the Harrisburg area: schools, crime, shopping, recreation, pollution (except the awful allergy levels), and employment opportunities.
7. Mortgage financing is still readily available.
8. Our population is growing at a steady rate.
9. Government and education (our top employers) ain't getting any smaller.
10. We are NOT in a boom* yet.

*A boom is defined as an aggregate 30% increase in value over three successive years. According to the Central Penn Multi-List appreciation in 2002 was 5%; 2003 was 8%; and 2004 was 9.5% -- that is only 22.5%. I predicted in January of 2005 that we would see double-digit appreciation this year. It looks like it could be as high as 12%. So....we will finally have met the definition of a BOOM.